The Portuguese real estate market entered 2026 in a configuration rarely seen: prices continue to hit record highs while the number of homes sold decreases. For the region where we operate, the Setúbal Peninsula and the axis extending to Beja, Alentejo, this tension is particularly acute. The Setúbal Peninsula was the second sub-region in the country where prices rose the most last year. Beja registered one of the highest valuations among district capitals, starting from a very low base.
This report gathers the available official data, interprets what they mean, and outlines what we expect for the next twelve months.
1. The national context
A historic year, followed by a brake on transactions
In 2025, the Portuguese market experienced its most intense year in the last decade and a half. The Housing Price Index rose by 17.6%, the largest increase since INE began measuring in 2009, and 169,812 dwellings were transacted, the highest number since 2009.
Source: INE, Housing Price Index, 4th quarter 2025 (published March 23, 2026).
In 2026, the picture changed. In the first quarter, the average price of homes sold reached €2,337/m², a year-on-year increase of 19.8% and the highest value ever. But 35,953 homes were sold, 10.5% less than in the same period of 2025, the second consecutive quarter of falling transactions.
Source: INE, Housing Price Statistics at Local Level, 1st quarter 2026 (published July 2026).
What this means
Fewer homes are being sold, but each one costs more. This configuration indicates a market where supply does not keep up with demand and where a growing proportion of buyers are being excluded due to financial incapacity, while those with capital continue to transact at increasingly higher prices.
INE notes that prices continue to rise at a much faster rate than wages, which simultaneously explains the increase in values and the reduction in the number of transactions.
2. The Setúbal Peninsula
Among the sub-regions with the highest valuation in the country
In the first quarter of 2026, the Setúbal Peninsula registered a year-on-year appreciation of 28.9%, the second highest among the 26 NUTS III sub-regions of the country, only behind Lezíria do Tejo (+30.4%).
Source: INE / idealista news, July 2026.
The average price in the Setúbal Peninsula was €2,996/m² in the first quarter of 2026, making it the third most expensive sub-region in Portugal, behind only Greater Lisbon (€3,836/m²) and the Algarve (€3,352/m²), and ahead of Madeira (€2,863/m²) and the Metropolitan Area of Porto (€2,552/m²).
A decade-long trajectory
This position is not accidental. Between the first quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2024, house prices more than doubled in ten of the eighteen municipalities in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, including Almada, Seixal, Setúbal, Barreiro, Palmela, and Moita.
In other words: the municipalities where we work were, for six years, among those with the highest appreciation in the country. And in 2026, they continue to accelerate.
At the municipality level
The most recent data available for the municipality of Almada indicate an average asking price of €4,135/m², 1% below the Setúbal district average (€4,192/m²) and 70% above the national average (€2,431/m²).
Important methodological note: there is a systematic difference between asking prices (what is requested in advertisements) and transaction prices (what is actually paid in deeds). INE data reflects actual transactions; portal and aggregator data reflects asking values. The difference between the two is, in itself, a relevant indicator of the market's state.
Our interpretation
What we observe on the ground is consistent with these numbers, with three nuances that statistics do not capture.
First: intra-municipal variation is enormous. Talking about the "price in Almada" has little practical meaning. Between Charneca da Caparica, Pragal, Costa da Caparica, and Sobreda there are differences that any average dilutes. The same applies to Setúbal, where Azeitão and the city function as distinct markets.
Second: the affordable segment has practically disappeared. Price pressure has eliminated a large part of the supply below certain thresholds, which explains part of the drop in transactions. It is not that demand has decreased, but that many buyers can no longer find products within their reach.
Third: houses with outdoor space underpinned above-average appreciation. The change in housing priorities that began in 2020 has consolidated. In our region, where houses with land are a common format, this had a direct effect.
3. The Alentejo and Beja district
The region that appreciated the most in the country
Between April 2025 and April 2026, the Alentejo recorded the largest price increase of all Portuguese regions: 21.3%, ahead of the Azores (19.3%), the Centre (12%) and the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (11.1%).
Beja: strong rise, low base
Beja stood out with an annual appreciation of 23%, one of the highest in the country among district capitals. For context, Évora registered 7.5% in the same period. Despite this sharp rise, Beja remains among the most affordable district capitals, with a median value of €1,439/m². Other readings place Beja between €1,315 and €1,356/m², depending on the methodology and period.
What these numbers hide
A 23% appreciation on a base of €1,400/m² is mathematically impressive and economically very different from 23% on €4,000/m². In absolute terms, Beja still offers about a third of the cost per square meter of the Setúbal Peninsula. It is this difference that explains the movement we observe: buyers and investors who consider Alentejo not out of initial preference, but out of mathematics.
Sign of institutional investment
An INE data point deserves particular attention: the Alentejo Litoral was the only sub-region in the country where the median price of dwellings acquired by other institutional sectors exceeded that of those acquired by families. This indicates the presence of institutional investment operating in segments of higher value than the family market — a signal usually preceding sustained appreciation.
At the same time, Alentejo Litoral registered one of the largest drops in transactions in the country in the first quarter of 2026 (-15.5%), which suggests a market repositioning itself by value rather than by volume.
4. The foreign buyer
More than a quarter of the market
In 2025, foreign buyers accounted for 27.6% of all transactions carried out by families in Portugal. Housing credit granted to foreigners reached 13.56% of the total.
The difference in purchasing power
- Tax domicile in Portugal — €234,120
- European Union — €335,640
- Other countries — €470,277
- British — €512,585
- North Americans — €479,403
British and North American buyers acquire properties at values more than 120% above the average of Portuguese buyers.
At the regional level
In the first quarter of 2026, buyers residing in Portugal acquired at €2,313/m², while buyers residing abroad paid €3,000/m² — a difference of about 30%. The Setúbal Peninsula is among the five sub-regions with the highest median prices for both national and foreign buyers.
Our interpretation
The international buyer in our region has a different profile from what is observed in the Algarve or Lisbon. They are not primarily looking for a second holiday home, but for a residence with quality of life at an operational distance from Lisbon. This has two practical implications. First: foreign demand in the Setúbal Peninsula is less seasonal and less volatile than in tourist regions. Second: communication in several languages is no longer an extra, but has become a condition for accessing more than a quarter of the market.
5. Comparative summary
Setúbal Peninsula
Median price ~€2,996/m² · year-on-year appreciation +28.9% · 3rd most expensive sub-region · transactions falling
Beja / Alentejo
Median price ~€1,439/m² (Beja) · appreciation +23% (Beja) / +21.3% (Alentejo) · among the most affordable capitals · Alentejo Litoral -15.5% in transactions
National
Median price €2,337/m² · year-on-year appreciation +19.8% · transactions -10.5%
6. Outlook for 2026–2027
What follows is interpretative analysis, not certain prediction. It is based on the data above and the interpretation of those who operate in the region daily.
Prices should continue to rise, but at a slower pace
The drop in transactions for two consecutive quarters is a signal. A market cannot indefinitely sustain price increases with decreasing volumes — at some point, either prices moderate, or volume contracts to the point of forcing an adjustment. Our expectation is for continued, more moderate price increases in the Setúbal Peninsula, with possible stabilization in some segments throughout 2027.
The Setúbal–Beja differential should shrink
With the Setúbal Peninsula at €2,996/m² and Beja at about €1,439/m², the differential is more than double. Historically, differentials of this magnitude between connected regions tend to shrink — not by a fall in the expensive region, but by an acceleration of the more affordable one. The 23% appreciation in Beja last year could be the beginning of this movement, not an isolated episode.
The foreign buyer should gain relative weight
With national purchasing power pressured by the discrepancy between prices and wages, and with foreign buyers operating at values 30% higher, the natural trend is for an increase in the relative weight of foreign capital in transactions — especially in the medium-high value segments.
Affordable product will be the main point of tension
The progressive elimination of supply in affordable segments is, in our view, the main structural factor in the fall of transactions. Until there is a supply-side response, this tension will persist.
7. Practical implications
For those who want to buy
Time continues to work against the buyer in terms of price, but in favor in terms of choice — with fewer transactions, there is less direct competition for each property than in 2024 and 2025. Those with approved financial capacity now have more negotiating power than in the previous two years, especially for properties that have been on the market for some time.
For those who want to sell
This is a seller-favorable market in terms of price, but less favorable in terms of speed. With fewer active buyers, property preparation and presentation have become decisive — and the initial price even more critical. Mismatched properties stay on the market, and a property that stays on the market loses perceived value.
For those who want to invest
The differential between the Setúbal Peninsula and the Alentejo interior is, in our opinion, the most interesting opportunity in the region right now. The 23% appreciation in Beja with still low absolute values suggests a margin that no longer exists in the municipalities closest to Lisbon. The sign of institutional investment in Alentejo Litoral reinforces this interpretation.
Methodological notes
About comparing sources. This report gathers data from INE (real transactions, registered in deeds), idealista (asking price index) and ad aggregators. These sources measure different things and are not directly comparable to each other. Where possible, we have indicated the origin and period of each value.
About asking prices vs. transaction prices. Asking values are usually higher than deed values. A combined reading of both is more informative than either one alone.
About regional averages. Any average or median value per municipality or sub-region dilutes very significant internal variations. For decision-making on a specific property, these values serve as context, never as an appraisal.
Main sources: INE — Housing Price Index (4th quarter 2025); INE — Housing Price Statistics at Local Level (1st quarter 2026); INE — Bank Valuation Survey on Housing; idealista — Housing Price Index (2026); ImoTrack — active ad data (2026).
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