For years we have heard the same prediction: "house prices are going to fall." Year after year, to the surprise of many, they don't, and each side of the debate becomes more convinced it is right. Those who bought feel vindicated; those who waited feel misled. In the middle of this noise, it is hard to make an informed decision. In our view, the honest truth sits somewhere in the middle, and it is worth explaining it without alarmism or forced optimism.
The market is not healthy, and we will not pretend it is
It is worth starting here, because it would be dishonest to sweep the problem under the rug. Today's prices squeeze family budgets and push out of the market many people who, a generation ago, would already own a home. The ratio between housing costs and incomes has deteriorated in most markets. Anyone who feels frustrated about this has legitimate reasons. Acknowledging this point is the first step in a serious conversation. What we question is not the existence of the problem, but the solution many people are waiting for: the crash.
Why the "crash" many expect never arrives
An abrupt, widespread drop in prices does not happen just because values are high. It happens when there are mass forced sellers, people compelled to sell quickly and below value, usually due to loss of income, high unemployment or inability to pay their mortgage. Until that trigger fires, the market behaves differently. Those who are not forced to sell simply do not sell: they prefer to wait rather than accept a loss. Available supply shrinks, and scarcity supports prices even with weaker demand.
Add to this years of cheap credit that inflated the starting point, and new construction that, in many places, does not keep up with need. The likely outcome is not the dramatic fall that makes headlines. It is stagnation: prices that stay roughly flat for years. And here is a warning rarely discussed: stagnation with inflation is a silent, real loss of value, eroding purchasing power without anyone celebrating or publicly lamenting it.
What this means
The practical conclusion is simple: waiting for the "perfect collapse" to buy can cost you years, years of renting without building equity, waiting for a signal that may never come. This does not mean buying is always the right decision. It means the right decision rarely depends on guessing the future of the market. It depends on concrete, personal factors:
- Your financial situation: income stability, available down payment, buffer for the unexpected.
- Your time horizon: buying to live for ten years is very different from buying to resell in four.
- The specific property and its area: national averages hide very different realities from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.
Our role
As an agency, we gain nothing by selling you blind optimism or by feeding fear to pressure you. We gain by having you as an informed, satisfied long-term client.
That is why our commitment is to give you the real numbers for your market, and to help you read them in light of your situation, so that you decide with clarity, not on a guess about what the market may or may not do.
What is making you hesitate right now? If you wish, share your doubts with us. That is exactly what we are here for.
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